核心观点：

　　Core viewpoint:

　　2025-2026年是人形机器人量产元年，丝杠作为占整机成本19%的核心传动部件，正迎来从"0到1"的突破。特斯拉Optimus明确采用14个行星滚柱丝杠的方案，定义了主流技术路径，国产替代空间巨大。01主题界定与核心驱动力

　　2025-2026 is the first year of mass production for humanoid robots, and the screw, as the core transmission component that accounts for 19% of the overall cost, is experiencing a breakthrough from "0 to 1". The Tesla Optimus clearly adopts a solution of 14 planetary roller screws, defining the mainstream technology path, and there is huge room for domestic substitution. 01 Theme Definition and Core Driving Forces

　　主题定义本报告聚焦的"人形机器人丝杠环节"，是指为人形机器人提供核心直线传动功能，将旋转运动精确转化为线性运动的精密机械部件及其上下游产业链。核心边界：以行星滚柱丝杠（用于躯干主关节）和微型滚珠丝杠（用于灵巧手）为主，涵盖从特种钢材、精密加工设备到丝杠成品制造的全过程。

　　The theme definition of this report focuses on the "humanoid robot screw link", which refers to the precision mechanical components and their upstream and downstream industrial chains that provide core linear transmission functions for humanoid robots, accurately converting rotational motion into linear motion. Core boundary: Mainly using planetary roller screws (for trunk main joints) and micro ball screws (for dexterous hands), covering the entire process from special steel, precision machining equipment to finished screw manufacturing.

　　三大核心驱动力

　　Three core driving forces

　　① 技术突破与产品定义以特斯拉Optimus为代表的龙头产品，明确将行星滚柱丝杠作为线性执行器的标准解决方案。AI大模型在运动控制上的快速迭代，显著提升了机器人本体的运动能力与智能化水平。

　　① Technological breakthroughs and product definitions are represented by Tesla Optimus, a leading product that explicitly uses planetary roller screws as the standard solution for linear actuators. The rapid iteration of AI models in motion control has significantly improved the motion capability and intelligence level of the robot body.

　　② 重大产业与成本拐点临近2025-2026年被广泛视为量产元年。特斯拉、小鹏、优必选等整机厂商明确了量产时间表，需求将从"台"级跃升"万台"乃"百万台"级。规模化将推动工艺从磨削向"以车代磨"、旋风铣等工艺演进，带来显著降本空间。

　　② Major industries and cost inflection points are approaching, and 2025-2026 is widely regarded as the first year of mass production. Tesla, Xiaopeng, Ubiquitous and other whole machine manufacturers have clarified their production schedules, and demand will jump from the "unit" level to the "tens of thousands" or even "millions" level. Scale up will promote the evolution of processes from grinding to efficient processes such as "replacing grinding with vehicles" and whirlwind milling, bringing significant cost reduction opportunities.

　　③ 强力政策与自主可控需求工业母机及高端装备的自主可控是战略方向。丝杠作为数控机床的核心部件，其高端市场长期被外资垄断。在政策推动下，国产化替代与在人形机器人赛道上的弯道超车形成强大合力。02产业链解构与技术路径图 产业链三级梯队上游材料与设备高性能合金钢（如轴承钢）：热处理工艺直接影响丝杠寿命与承载能力

　　③ Strong policies and independent controllable demand for industrial mother machines and high-end equipment are national strategic directions. As the core component of CNC machine tools, the screw has long been monopolized by foreign investment in its high-end market. Under policy promotion, domestic substitution and overtaking on the curve of the humanoid robot race have formed a strong synergy. 02 Industrial Chain Deconstruction and Technology Roadmap: Upstream Materials and Equipment High Performance Alloy Steel (such as Bearing Steel) in the Third Tier of the Industrial Chain: Heat Treatment Process Directly Affects the Life and Load Capacity of the Screw

　　高精度加工设备：高端磨床、旋风铣床、数控车床，目前仍依赖进口▼中游 ★核心丝杠制造行星滚柱丝杠：用于躯干主关节，技术壁垒

　　High precision machining equipment: high-end grinding machines, cyclone milling machines, CNC lathes, currently still relying on imports ▼ midstream ★ core screw manufacturing planetary roller screws: used for trunk main joints, with the highest technical barrier

　　微型滚珠丝杠：用于灵巧手，精度要求极高

　　Micro ball screw: used for dexterous hands, with extremely high precision requirements

　　集中了材料学、精密加工、热处理、检测等综合技术壁垒▼下游集成与应用丝杠与电机、传感器、轴承等集成形成线性执行器模组，终装配于人形机器人本体，应用于工业制造、商业服务、家庭护理等场景。 四大加工工艺路径对比 磨削工艺当前主流特点：使用砂轮进行精加工

　　Integrating materials science, precision machining, heat treatment, testing and other comprehensive technical barriers, downstream integration and application of screw and motor, sensor, bearing and other components to form linear actuator modules, which are ultimately assembled into humanoid robot bodies and applied in industrial manufacturing, commercial services, home care and other scenarios. Comparison of four major machining process paths: The current mainstream feature of grinding technology is the use of grinding wheels for precision machining

　　优势：精度，可达P0/P1级，表面质量好

　　Advantages: Highest accuracy, up to P0/P1 level, good surface quality

　　劣势：效率低，设备投资大（进口磨床上千万），砂轮耗材成本高

　　Disadvantages: Low efficiency, large equipment investment (tens of millions of imported grinding machines), high cost of grinding wheel consumables

　　阶段：高精度丝杠，已成熟应用 旋风铣快速崛起特点：采用旋转刀具进行铣削

　　Stage: High precision lead screw preferred, mature application, rapid rise of whirlwind milling features: using rotary cutting tools for milling

　　优势：效率较高，精度与效率平衡性好

　　Advantages: High efficiency, good balance between accuracy and efficiency

　　劣势：高端多轴设备依赖进口，刀具设计有门槛

　　Disadvantage: High end multi axis equipment relies on imports, and there are thresholds for tool design

　　阶段：降本提效的重要方向 硬车（以车代磨）技术突破期特点：用超硬刀具进行车削

　　Stage: An important direction for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Hard turning (replacing grinding with turning) technology breakthrough stage. Characteristics: Using superhard cutting tools for turning

　　优势：加工效率高（约为磨削的2-3倍），设备成本相对较低

　　Advantages: High processing efficiency (about 2-3 times that of grinding), relatively low equipment cost

　　劣势：对刀具刚性、机床稳定性要求极高，工艺成熟度待提升

　　Disadvantage: The requirements for tool rigidity and machine stability are extremely high, and the process maturity needs to be improved

　　阶段：国内多家厂商研发 轧制大批量标准件特点：通过塑性变形成型螺纹

　　Stage: Multiple domestic manufacturers focus on developing and rolling large quantities of standard parts. Characteristics: forming threads through plastic deformation

　　优势：效率极高，材料利用率高，成本低

　　Advantages: extremely high efficiency, high material utilization rate, low cost

　　劣势：精度较低，难以满足机器人关节的高要求

　　Disadvantage: Low accuracy, difficult to meet the high requirements of robot joints

　　阶段：适用于中低精度、大批量标准件 未来趋势："磨削保证精度+车/铣提升效率"的混合工艺或将成为主流。短期内掌握磨削工艺的企业具备量产交付能力；中长期看，在旋风铣或硬车工艺上实现高精度、高稳定量产的企业将赢得成本优势。 价值链识别核心环节（高附加值、高技术壁垒）：中游的丝杠制造，特别是行星滚柱丝杠的螺纹精密加工。其价值凝聚了材料、设备、工艺Know-how和检测技术，毛利率潜力。关键瓶颈环节（短期供给刚性）：上游的高端加工设备（如高端磨床）和高质量原材料。设备的交货周期和材料的性能稳定性，是制约丝杠产能快速扩张和性能一致性的关键瓶颈。03价值量分布与动态演变分析 静态价值分布152.6亿2030年全球市场规模（美元）

　　Stage: Suitable for medium to low precision and large-scale standard parts. Future trend: The hybrid process of "grinding ensures accuracy+turning/milling improves efficiency" may become mainstream. Enterprises that have mastered grinding technology in the short term have the ability to mass produce and deliver; In the medium to long term, enterprises that achieve high-precision and high stability mass production in whirlwind milling or hard turning processes will win cost advantages. The core link of value chain identification (high added value, high technological barriers): midstream screw manufacturing, especially precision machining of planetary roller screw threads. Its value embodies materials, equipment, process know-how, and testing technology, with the highest gross profit margin potential. Key bottleneck link (short-term supply rigidity): Upstream high-end processing equipment (such as high-end grinding machines) and high-quality raw materials. The delivery cycle of equipment and the stability of material performance are key bottlenecks that restrict the rapid expansion of screw production capacity and performance consistency. 03 Value Distribution and Dynamic Evolution Analysis Static Value Distribution 15.26 billion Global Market Size in 2030 (USD)

　　19%丝杠价值量占比

　　19% of screw value proportion

　　500亿+2030年丝杠市场规模（人民币）市场规模：据Markets and Markets预测，2030年全球人形机器人市场规模约152.6亿美元。丝杠作为价值量占比约19%的核心部件，多家机构测算2030年仅人形机器人带来的行星滚柱丝杠市场规模有望达到数百亿元人民币级别（东吴证券测算超450亿元，中信建投测算超500亿元），较传统工业市场呈几何级数增长。 毛利率区间：由于当前处于产业化早期，具备量产能力的厂商少，竞争格局好，预计丝杠产品特别是行星滚柱丝杠的毛利率处于较高水平。参考精密传动行业，规模化量产初期毛利率可达40%-50%甚更高。随着后续竞争加剧和工艺优化，毛利率将逐步回落并稳定在合理区间。 动态价值迁移四大趋势1技术迭代催生新价值环节若"以车代磨"或"旋风铣"工艺在高精度丝杠加工上取得突破并成为主流，那么高性能超硬刀具、高端数控车床及旋风铣设备的价值和需求将大幅提升，相关设备与耗材供应商将受益。

　　50 billion+2030 screw market size (RMB) market size: According to Markets and Markets' forecast, the global humanoid robot market size will be approximately 15.26 billion US dollars by 2030. As a core component that accounts for about 19% of the value, the screw is expected to reach a market size of tens of billions of yuan in planetary roller screws brought by humanoid robots alone by 2030, according to multiple institutions (estimated by Dongwu Securities to exceed 45 billion yuan and CITIC Securities to exceed 50 billion yuan), showing geometric growth compared to the traditional industrial market. Gross profit margin range: Due to the current early stage of industrialization, there are few manufacturers with mass production capabilities, and the competitive landscape is good, it is expected that the gross profit margin of screw products, especially planetary roller screws, will be at a relatively high level. Referring to the precision transmission industry, the initial gross profit margin for large-scale production can reach 40% -50% or even higher. With the intensification of competition and process optimization in the future, the gross profit margin will gradually decline and stabilize within a reasonable range. The four major trends of dynamic value transfer are: 1. Technological iteration generates new value links. If the "car instead of grinding" or "whirlwind milling" processes make breakthroughs in high-precision screw machining and become mainstream, the value and demand for high-performance superhard cutting tools, high-end CNC lathes, and whirlwind milling equipment will be greatly increased, and related equipment and consumables suppliers will benefit.

　　2产业化进程中的需求弹性导入期：高精度加工设备需求迫切；

　　The introduction period of demand elasticity in the industrialization process: the urgent demand for high-precision processing equipment;

　　放量期：具备大规模、一致性生产能力的丝杠制造商以及PEEK等轻量化材料供应商将迎来巨大弹性。

　　High volume period: Screw manufacturers with large-scale and consistent production capabilities, as well as lightweight material suppliers such as PEEK, will experience tremendous flexibility.

　　3供需格局与阶段性溢价

　　3 Supply and demand patterns and phased premiums

　　在需求突然爆发时，螺纹磨床等高端设备因其交付周期长（通常1年以上），将成为紧俏的瓶颈资源，设备厂商及已提前锁定设备产能的丝杠企业将获得阶段性溢价。4国产替代实现价值转移在行星滚柱丝杠这一被Rollvis、GSA等欧洲企业垄断（2022年CR4约78%）的"卡脖子"环节，国内企业一旦实现技术突破和批量供货，将直接承接巨大的价值转移。国产化率每提升一个百分点，都意味着数亿乃数十亿元的市场份额重新分配。

　　When demand suddenly erupts, high-end equipment such as thread grinders will become the most scarce bottleneck resource due to their long delivery cycle (usually over 1 year). Equipment manufacturers and screw enterprises that have already locked in equipment production capacity in advance will receive a phased premium. In the "bottleneck" link of planetary roller screw, which is monopolized by European companies such as Rollvis and GSA (with a CR4 of about 78% in 2022), domestic enterprises will directly undertake huge value transfer once they achieve technological breakthroughs and bulk supply. Every one percentage point increase in localization rate means a redistribution of market share worth billions or even billions of yuan.

　　04核心公司深度梳理与定位

　　04 In depth sorting and positioning of core companies

　　四大类核心公司聚合分析系统定义与关键突围者代表公司：秦川机床、恒立液压特征：深度绑定龙头客户或技术，有望定义行业标准

　　Definition and Key Breakthroughs of Aggregation Analysis System for Four Major Core Companies Representative Companies: Qinchuan Machine Tool, Hengli Hydraulic Features: Deeply bound to leading customers or technology leaders, expected to define industry standards

　　弹性逻辑：弹性。秦川作为国内宣称量产行星滚柱丝杠的国企，技术卡位独特；恒立液压凭借液压领域积累的精密制造与客户优势，大规模资本投入线性驱动器，确定性较强。特色工艺与型供应商代表公司：双林股份（收购无锡科之鑫）、贝斯特、五洲新春、北特科技、震裕科技、嵘泰股份特征：在特定工艺路径（如旋风铣、硬车）或上游关键环节（设备、材料）具备深厚积累

　　Elastic logic: The highest elasticity. As the only state-owned enterprise in China that claims to mass produce planetary roller screws, Qinchuan has a unique technical positioning; Hengli Hydraulic relies on its accumulated precision manufacturing and customer advantages in the hydraulic field, with large-scale capital investment in linear drives and strong certainty. Representative companies for characteristic processes and expert suppliers: Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (acquired Wuxi Kezhixin), Best, Wuzhou Xinchun, Beite Technology, Zhenyu Technology, Rongtai Co., Ltd. Features: has a deep accumulation in specific process paths (such as whirlwind milling, hard turning) or upstream key links (equipment, materials)

　　弹性逻辑：弹性大，取决于技术路径验证。双林通过收购掌握反向丝杠磨床技术，具备"设备+产品"协同优势。贝斯特、五洲新春从汽车零部件延伸，工艺同源，具备成本和规模化潜力。产能快速布局与生态赋能者代表公司：南方精工、力星股份特征：通过资本运作或快速扩产抢占赛道，或为生态内核心厂商提供支撑

　　Elastic logic: The elasticity is large and depends on the verification of the technical path. Shuanglin has acquired the technology of reverse screw grinding machine through acquisition, possessing the synergistic advantage of "equipment+product". Best and Wuzhou New Year extend from automotive parts, with the same technology and potential for cost and scale. Representative companies for rapid production capacity layout and ecological empowerment: Southern Precision Industry and Lixing Co., Ltd. Characteristics: Seize the track through capital operation or rapid expansion of production, or provide support for core manufacturers within the ecosystem

　　弹性逻辑：高弹性，但需验证。此类公司扩产激进（如北特科技投资18.5亿建基地），若产能消化顺利则弹性巨大，反之则有风险。其成功高度依赖下游客户定点进展。产业链配套与隐形特征：专注于丝杠上游的轴承、滚动体、精密结构件等细分领域

　　Elastic logic: High elasticity, but requires verification. Such companies are aggressively expanding their production (such as Beite Technology investing 1.85 billion yuan to build a base). If the capacity digestion is smooth, there will be huge flexibility, otherwise there will be risks. Its success is highly dependent on the targeted progress of downstream customers. Industrial chain matching and hidden champion features: Focusing on segmented fields such as bearings, rolling elements, precision structural components, etc. upstream of the screw

　　弹性逻辑：确定性较高，弹性中等。作为"卖铲人"，受益于行业整体扩容，需求波动小于整机制造商，但单车价值量相对较低。 上市公司深度对比秦川机床000837.SZ产业链环节：中游：行星滚柱丝杠、RV减速器技术路径：自研P0级磨床，掌握核心磨削工艺；国内量产行星滚柱丝杠报道核心客户：适配特斯拉Optimus、华为机器人；军工领域高市占率投资逻辑：稀缺的"设备+工艺+产品"全链条队，技术卡位。

　　Elastic logic: high certainty, moderate elasticity. As a 'shovel seller', benefiting from the overall expansion of the industry, demand fluctuations are smaller than those of whole machine manufacturers, but the value of individual vehicles is relatively low. In depth comparison of key listed companies in Qinchuan Machine Tool 000837. SZ industry chain links: midstream: planetary roller screw, RV reducer technology path: self-developed P0 level grinder, master the core grinding process; The only domestically produced planetary roller screw reported core customers: compatible with Tesla Optimus and Huawei robots; The investment logic of high market share in the military industry field: the scarce "equipment+process+product" full chain national team has the best technical position.

　　催化剂：获特斯拉等头部客户正式定点；军工订单持续高增。恒立液压601100.SH产业链环节：中游：线性执行器、行星滚柱丝杠、滚珠丝杠技术路径：投资15.27亿布局线性驱动器；依托液压精密制造基础进行工艺迁移核心客户：全球工程机械龙头客户，有望平移机器人客户投资逻辑：精密制造巨人跨界，管理、资本、客户优势显著，成功概率高。

　　Catalyst: officially designated by top customers such as Tesla; Military orders continue to increase rapidly. Hengli Hydraulic 601100. SH Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Linear actuators, planetary roller screws, ball screws Technology Path: Investment of 1.527 billion yuan to layout linear drives; Based on the foundation of hydraulic precision manufacturing, the core customer for process migration is a global leading engineering machinery customer, which is expected to shift to a robot customer. Investment logic: a precision manufacturing giant crossing boundaries, with significant advantages in management, capital, and customers, and a high probability of success.

　　催化剂：线性执行器样品获大客户认可并下达试制订单。双林股份300100.SZ产业链环节：中游：行星滚柱丝杠；上游：磨床设备（无锡科之鑫）技术路径：通过收购切入，掌握反向式行星滚柱丝杠磨床量产能力核心客户：已向国内外头部机器人客户送样/交付；供应宇树科技投资逻辑："自主设备+核心部件"模式，具备供应链性和成本优势。磨床成本降300万/台，交付周期缩短75%。

　　Catalyst: The linear actuator sample has been recognized by a major customer and a trial production order has been placed. Shuanglin Stock 300100.SZ Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw; Upstream: Grinding Machine Equipment (Wuxi Kezhixin) Technical Path: Through acquisition, we have mastered the mass production capability of reverse planetary roller screw grinding machines. Core Customers: We have already sent samples/deliveries to domestic and foreign head robot customers; Exclusive supply of Yushu Technology investment logic: "Independent equipment+core components" model, with supply chain security and cost advantages. The cost of grinding machines has been reduced to 3 million yuan per unit, and the delivery cycle has been shortened by 75%.

　　催化剂：自研丝杠通过客户验证并获取量产订单。五洲新春603667.SH产业链环节：中游：行星滚柱丝杠、轴承技术路径：基于现有精密加工产能进行柔性拓展；丝杠已获机床厂商批量订单核心客户：通过杭州新剑传动成为特斯拉Optimus核心供应商；定增扩产98万套丝杠产能投资逻辑：丝杠+轴承双核心，特斯拉量产供应商，定增扩产兑现弹性。

　　Catalyst: Our self-developed screw has been validated by customers and has obtained mass production orders. Wuzhou New Year 603667. SH Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw, Bearing Technology Path: Flexible Expansion Based on Existing Precision Machining Capacity; The lead screw has obtained bulk orders from machine tool manufacturers and has become a core customer of Tesla Optimus through Hangzhou Xinjian Transmission; The investment logic for expanding the production capacity of 980000 sets of screws through private placement: dual core screws and bearings, Tesla mass production supplier, flexible realization of private placement expansion.

　　进展：2024年三季度供货量已达3000多根/月，预计2026年可覆盖特斯拉60%以上丝杠需求。贝斯特300580.SZ产业链环节：中游：行星滚柱丝杠、滚动导轨技术路径：从汽车涡轮增压器精密轴承件工艺延伸核心客户：已取得机床厂商批量交付订单；机器人客户持续推进中投资逻辑：汽车精密制造，工艺同源，具备强成本控制和批量交付能力。

　　Latest progress: The supply volume in the third quarter of 2024 has reached over 3000 units per month, and it is expected to cover more than 60% of Tesla's screw demand by 2026. Best 300580.SZ Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw, Rolling Guide Technology Path: Extending from Precision Bearing Parts Process of Automotive Turbochargers Core Customers: Obtained Batch Delivery Orders from Machine Tool Manufacturers; Robot customers continue to promote investment logic: automotive precision manufacturing experts, process homogeneity, strong cost control and batch delivery capabilities.

　　催化剂：公告获得知名机器人公司丝杠量产定点。北特科技603009.SH产业链环节：中游：行星滚柱丝杠技术路径：通过合资与合作切入，投资18.5亿元建设研发生产基地产能规划：规划宏大，但产能建设与爬坡需要时间投资逻辑：激进布局者，若产能顺利落地且获客成功，弹性巨大。

　　Catalyst: Announced as designated for mass production of lead screws by a well-known robot company. Beite Technology 603009. SH Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw Technology Path: Through joint ventures and cooperation, invest 1.85 billion yuan to build a research and development production base Capacity Planning: The plan is grand, but capacity construction and climbing require time Investment Logic: For radical layout, if the capacity is successfully implemented and customer acquisition is successful, the flexibility is huge.

　　催化剂：生产基地建设超预期；与某头部厂商签订战略合作框架协议。产业动态（2025-2026） 特斯拉Optimus量产特斯拉Optimus V3预计2026年Q1正式量产，年底实现V3量产。新剑传动作为一级供应商，年产100万台机器人丝杠项目一期年底竣工。

　　Catalyst: Production base construction exceeds expectations; Signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a leading manufacturer. Latest Industry Trends (2025-2026) Tesla Optimus Countdown to Mass Production Tesla Optimus V3 is expected to officially start production in Q1 2026 and achieve V3 mass production by the end of the year. As a first tier supplier, Xinjian Transmission's first phase of the 1 million robot screw project with an annual output will be completed by the end of the year.

　　五洲新春通过新剑传动间接供应特斯拉，2024年三季度供货量已达3000多根/月。 国产设备突破双林股份通过收购科之鑫，将反向式行星滚柱丝杠磨床成本从降300万元/台，加工时间从45分钟压缩12分钟。恒而达收购德国SMS Maschinenbau GmbH，直接获取螺纹磨削核心工艺。 成本快速下降夏厦精密通过越南、宁波双基地布局，将反向式行星滚柱丝杠成本压降千元级。国产丝杠凭借成本优势，将单品从2000元压1400元以下，较外资产品低30%-40%。

　　Wuzhou New Year indirectly supplies Tesla through New Sword Transmission, with a monthly supply of over 3000 units in the third quarter of 2024. Domestic equipment breakthrough Shuanglin Co., Ltd. has reduced the cost of reverse planetary roller screw grinding machines from tens of millions to 3 million yuan per unit through the acquisition of Kezhixin, and the processing time has been compressed from 45 minutes to 12 minutes. Hengerda acquires SMS Maschinenbau GmbH from Germany and directly obtains the core thread grinding process. The rapid cost reduction of Xiaxia Precision has reduced the cost of reverse planetary roller screw to the level of thousands of yuan through the layout of dual bases in Vietnam and Ningbo. Domestic screw rods, with their cost advantage, have lowered the single product price from 2000 yuan to below 1400 yuan, which is 30% -40% lower than foreign products.

　　05综合研判与风险提示

　　05 Comprehensive analysis and risk warning

　　投资时钟与阶段判断综合来看，人形机器人丝杠产业正处从概念导入期向成长初期过渡的关键阶段。其特征是：技术路线初步明确但工艺仍在优化，龙头产品已定义需求，多家企业完成样品送样，少数企业实现小批量供货，大规模量产订单即将落地。

　　From the perspective of investment clock and stage judgment, the humanoid robot screw industry is currently in a critical stage of transition from the concept introduction period to the early growth stage. Its characteristics are: the technical route is initially clear but the process is still being optimized, the requirements for leading products have been defined, multiple companies have completed sample delivery, a few companies have achieved small batch supply, and large-scale production orders are about to land.

　　这是投资产业链核心环节的"左侧布局期"。 标的排序基于"确定性优先，兼顾弹性"原则

　　This is the best 'left side layout period' for investing in the core links of the industrial chain. The recommended ranking of targets is based on the principle of "giving priority to certainty while considering flexibility"

　　恒立液压、秦川机床逻辑：前者具备从成功产业向更精密产业扩展的极高确定性和综合优势；后者具备稀缺的技术与产品卡位，且背靠国资，资源整合能力强。

　　Preferred options are Hengli Hydraulic and Qinchuan Machine Tool Logic: The former has a high degree of certainty and comprehensive advantages in expanding from a successful industry to a more precise industry; The latter has the most scarce technology and product positions, and is backed by state-owned assets with strong resource integration capabilities.

　　次选双林股份、贝斯特、五洲新春逻辑：双林"设备+部件"的垂直整合模式在量产阶段潜力巨大；贝斯特胜在工艺稳健、客户基础好；五洲新春已通过新剑传动切入特斯拉供应链，定增扩产弹性大。

　　The second choice is Shuanglin Co., Ltd., Best, and Wuzhou New Year's logic: Shuanglin's vertical integration mode of "equipment+components" has great potential in the mass production stage; Bestsheng has stable craftsmanship and a good customer base; Wuzhou New Year has entered Tesla's supply chain through New Sword Transmission, with great flexibility in expanding production through private placement.

　　跟踪震裕科技、北特科技、浙江荣泰逻辑：这些公司布局明确且积极，需密切跟踪其客户定点进展、产能落地情况及量产产品的良率与成本数据，以验证其逻辑。浙江荣泰是特斯拉灵巧手微型滚珠丝杠核心供应商。关键风险提示技术路线迭代风险特斯拉等龙头公司未来可能因技术突破（如磁悬浮关节）而改变执行器方案，导致对丝杠的需求减弱或消失。

　　Tracking Zhenyu Technology, Beite Technology, and Zhejiang Rongtai Logic: These companies have clear and proactive layouts, and need to closely track their customers' progress, production capacity implementation, and yield and cost data of mass-produced products to verify their logic. Zhejiang Rongtai is the core supplier of Tesla's dexterous hand micro ball screw. Key Risk Warning: Technological Route Iteration Risks. Leading companies such as Tesla may change their actuator solutions in the future due to technological breakthroughs (such as magnetic levitation joints), leading to a decrease or disappearance in demand for lead screws.

　　产业化进度不及预期风险人形机器人的量产涉及复杂的技术、成本和问题，若整机量产进度大幅推迟，将导致上游丝杠"需求失速"。竞争加剧与盈利风险当前的高毛利率具有阶段性。

　　The industrialization progress is slower than expected, and the mass production of humanoid robots involves complex technical, cost, and safety issues. If the overall mass production progress is significantly delayed, it will lead to a "demand stall" for upstream screw rods. The current high gross profit margin due to intensified competition and profit risks is phased.

　　一旦国产化突破，大量资本涌入可能导致行业竞争急剧恶化，引发战，侵蚀企业盈利能力。供应链瓶颈与成本风险高端加工设备、特种钢材的供应紧张和上涨，可能制约企业扩产速度并抬高成本，影响交付和利润。

　　Once localization breaks through, a large influx of capital may lead to a sharp deterioration of industry competition, trigger price wars, and erode corporate profitability. Supply chain bottlenecks and cost risks. The tight supply and rising prices of high-end processing equipment and special steel may constrain the expansion speed of enterprises and increase costs, affecting delivery and profits.